🔗 Share this article

Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.