Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
